Climate Change Risk Analysis of a Hydropower Project in Nepal
Hydropower projects face climate change risks due to changes in hydrology with increasing global temperature. To assess the impact on individual hydropower projects, a robustness-based bottom-up approach was introduced known as the Decision Tree Framework in 2015. In collaboration with Deltares and FutureWater, we at the University of Cincinnati analyzed the risks to a hydropower project in Nepal for the World Bank in 2019.
In this project, we conducted a detailed analysis of all available data regarding observed historical and project future hydro-climatic conditions in the basin to understand trends, and climate drivers. We then developed a series of models (weather generator, hydrologic model, hydropower generation model, financial model) capable of confidently reproducing historical basin conditions, as well as projecting future productivity. The models were run using a systematically-generated set of scenarios of possible future scenarios of climate (precipitation and temperature), sediment flows, and financial (capital and operations and maintenance costs). The fundamental risks facing the hydropower project and other similar run-of-river hydropower projects worldwide are 1) drought; 2) flood; 3) increased sediment load. This project, therefore, evaluated each of those three risks in detail and summarized findings.
In course of the project, I proposed an expansion to the established Decision Tree Framework by considering sediment and flood risks in addition to the long-term project performance. I presented the idea in the AGU conferece in 2019 (abstract here) and published in my masters thesis in 2019.
References:
- Wasti, A., Wi, S., Rahat, S., Karki, P., Ubierna, M., & Ray, P. (2019, December). Towards a holistic process for climate change risk assessment of hydropower projects. In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (Vol. 2019, pp. GC13C-03).
- Wasti, A. (2019). Climate Change Risk Assessment of Hydropower Projects: Towards a Holistic Approach [Master's thesis, University of Cincinnati]. OhioLINK Electronic Theses and Dissertations Center. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1573569567011193